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SCC Covid Dashboard 1/23/2021
#1
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-vaccine.aspx

Earlier in this thread, some people pointed out the link to the Covid dashboard. The dashboard has been updated and it also gives great information like ***appointments scheduled in the next 7 days***.

Unfortunately, I come away with a very pessimistic view at this point.

I guess the good news is that SCC has given 123000 first doses at 30000 second doses. That actually sounds pretty good compared to the rest of the country (with 2M people, that's 6.15% receiving first doses).

There are 3 pieces of bad news I see in the current dashboard:
1) Behind these "great numbers" -- look at Stanford healthcare which has given 22668 first doses. Sounds great, right? And they have already given 11,808 second doses and have another 11,000 second doses on hand. And curiously, they only have 6705 appointments next week. Add it all up -- That sure sounds like  the only people they've given doses to so far -- or will be for the next 2 weeks -- are healthcare workers. (6705 appointments a week, and 11,000 second doses on hand to give...) Are patients getting any shots?

2) I heard 25% of Californians 65+ use Kaiser (from another thread on this board). Yet they have only 6440 appointments next week. If they have 25% of the elderly in SCC and 14% of the population is 65+ (the national average), that's 70,000 people or 140,000 doses. At a pace of 6440 doses a week, they'll be done with phase 1b tier 1 of their patients in 21 weeks. Or, around June 20th! That's just PHASE 1B-Tier 1!

3) If you look at the vaccinations, the County of Santa Clara Health System is doing all the heavy lifting. They've given 58,000 out of their 68,000 first doses (so very little is just being hoarded/squatted on), and have 20,771 appointments scheduled next week -- that's more than Kaiser, Stanford Health and the Palo Alto Medical Foundation COMBINED, even though in a recent interview Sara Cody said *most* SCC residents were supposed to get vaccinated by Kaiser and PAMF. .

It looks like the bottleneck are the healthcare providers. This characterization might make some bristle -- but from the numbers it looks like they did an amazing job of very quickly vaccinating tens of thousands of their own employees but are vaccinating their actual patients at an absolute trickle. At their combined pace (Kaiser + PAMF + Stanford Healthcare) of 18,000 doses a week, it would take them about 4 years to vaccinate the people in SCC (2 million people * 2 doses / 18,000 doses a week).

Even with SCC and its 20,000+ doses scheduled next week, we still have only 42,650 appointments next week, at this pace, it'll take SCC 93 weeks -- or close to 2 years -- to vaccinate everyone. This is not good.

Everyone, IN PARTICULAR THE HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS, need to pick up their pace. We may need to emulate the SoCal cities that are setting up mass inoculation sites in stadiums, run by the counties.
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#2
I've been looking at that same data closely as well and my observations agree with you.  However, things are changing and there are bright spots.

Some things I've noticed....
First, the CVS/Walgreens contract to vaccinate the (subset of the) LTCF residents & staff isn't included in the numbers.  At this point, that's probably on the order of 10,000 to 15,000 residents  (300K for the state)

Except for the purpose of estimating when herd immunity will happen, it is useful to use the numbers of people that are eligible for vaccine.
I'm estimating that as the 18+ population.  SCC: 1.511M;  CA: 30.621M;  US: 274.080M

% of eligible population who have received at least 1 dose:  SCC: 6.1%,  CA 5.4%  US: 6.3%  (US minus CA: 6.5%)
So SCC is doing better than CA, but not up to the rest of the country.  However, SCC is catching up.

Over the last 3 days, there have been 6K vaccinations a day.  The 7-day appointments total 42K.  I suspect the parties believe that is a sustainable number for now.
During those 3 days, the number of doses received within the county went up 24K.  I expect that was a week's delivery at a rate of 3.5K/day    Unless that picks up, 6K/day isn't sustainable.  There is an excess of 67K doses currently, so it can be sustained for some time.  So, while the entities in the county have done a poor job of getting shots into arms, the limiting factor now is vaccine supply.

However, 6K/day means that it will take 300 days (10 months) to get 50% of the total population vaccinated with both doses.

I will single out two organizations that are doing a great job at getting vaccines out.  The County of Santa Clara Health System is administering vaccines right up to their assured vaccine supply.  Kaiser Permanente has been administering vaccines as fast as they get them.    Stanford wasn't doing a great job a week ago, but has made up ground this week.

On the other side of the coin is El Camino Health.  Three days ago, they had more than 4400 1st doses available.  In 3 days, they've only given 460 first doses.  (They just started appointments this week.)  They've got 1700 appointments for the coming week, which is low compared to 6200 doses available.

There have been some odd things in the published numbers that MAY indicate hoarding.  A week ago, many of the medical facilities showed about twice the number of 1st doses received versus doses administered.  Was this their holding onto half their supply for potential 2nd shots, while the government was also holding onto 2nd doses?  PAMF was not reporting their vaccine info until Jan. 20.  On that day, they showed 7365 1st doses administered out of 14800 1st doses received.  They also showed 9500 2nd doses received (none administered).  By the next day, they showed zero 2nd doses received.  I surely hope those doses were redistributed rather than sent back as expired.

I know that Stanford Health's earliest COVID vaccine appointments in the South Bay are about mid-March currently.  Clearly they can't know how many vaccine doses will be available then, so I presume they are using a conservative estimate.  That means that likely they will open up earlier appointments if vaccine production increases as expected.

At the current time, delays in administering vaccines TODAY are affecting primarily 75+.  (Note that vaccine administration may catch up, so today's delays may not delay later groups at al.)  I calculated that about 3.3 out of 10,000 75+ will die each week that could have survived with a 95% effective vaccine. 10K doses unnecessarily sitting on the shelf for 3 weeks translates to about 10 deaths.  (Less now that the infection rate is cooling off.)
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