Israel indicates 1 Pfizer dose not very effective

[M_T]

Reports indicate
"Israel’s coronavirus czar Nachman Ash has reportedly said the first dose of Pfizer’s vaccine provides less protection against COVID-19 than the US pharmaceutical firm had initially indicated it would,"

"Over 2 million Israelis have had their first Pfizer shot. Over 400,000 have had the second."
According to the Health Ministry, over 12,400 have people tested positive for coronavirus after receiving vaccine shots; this figure includes 69 people who have received the second dose.


I'm glad this study came out before the new administration in the US, lest they do something hasty.  (Remember the report of going to restaurant in Nashville being 6x more associated with those who got COVID than those who didn't, where that report came out right after the California governor opened restaurants.)

[ChrisGreene]

Unfortunately this is more complicated. I see no discussion regarding how many days after the appointment the infections occurred. I just spoke to my in-law that was vaccinated. He went to Trader Joe's the day before vaccination, breaking our agreement that he isolate because he just wanted to do some shopping. He's probably shopping all over the place now that he has the vaccine. The Pfizer preliminary data said that it takes 8 days after the vaccine to start to convey protection. Elderly make take longer. I wish the additional data Pfizer got since the EUA application were published to see what happens with a larger sample.

But 2 million testing positive and 12,400 testing positive is not much to make a conclusion.

[M_T]

I agree that it would be best if we knew how long it was between vaccinations and being sick.

(The US says "AVERAGE DAILY CASES PER 100K IN LAST 7 DAYS 60.1". In LA County, there are about 110 cases/day/100K)

Israel had 58,766 new cases Jan 7 - 14, about 8400/day, with a population about 9.1M, or about 92 new cases/day/100K.

2M vaccinated over 30 days is 67K per day.
12,400 sick is a daily rate of 413 sick per day, or 20.6/day/100K.
(92-20.6)/92 is about a 75% effectiveness. That's a lot of rough estimating, but the numbers I see don't show a clear case that 50% effectiveness for 1 dose is too high.