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Who's birthday is it now? Sacramento out of Regional Stay at Home
#1
California has lifted the Stay at Home Order for the Greater Sacramento Region (where the governor lives) while the ICUs have 9.4% ICU availability.  (The order specifies being triggered at < 15% availability.)

Today the number of people with COVID in the ICU reached an all-time high of 126 in Sacramento County.
38 new deaths today. (14 day rolling average 13.4)

My reaction was wondering whose birthday dinner is about to happen. 

What's the claim?  That the projection for 4 weeks from now is more than 15% available.
So what happens tomorrow when the ICU availability is way less than 15% (the trigger point) and the projection 4 weeks out is less than 15%?  Will CA close the region again???

The order actually says

Quote:5.    For Regions where the adult ICU bed capacity falls below 15% after the effective date of this order, the Terms of this Order shall take effect 24 hours after that assessment.
 
6.    The Terms of this Order shall remain in place for at least three weeks from the date the order takes effect in a Region and shall continue until CDPH's four-week projections of the Region's total available adult ICU bed capacity is greater than or equal to 15%. Four-week adult ICU bed capacity projections will be made approximately twice a week, unless CDPH determines that public health conditions merit an alternate projection schedule. If after three weeks from the effective date of the Terms of this Order in a Region, CDPH's four-week projections of the Region's total available adult ICU bed capacity is greater than or equal to 15%, the Terms of this Order shall no longer apply to the Region
 
7.    After the termination of the Terms of this Order in a Region, each county within the Region will be assigned to a tier based on the Blueprint for a Safer Economy as set out in my August 28, 2020 Order, and the County is subject to the restrictions of the Blueprint appropriate to that tier.


The 4-week projection termination uses the plural "projections"  in "CDPH's four-week projections" twice.  What does this mean?  The projection shows availability for every day over 4 weeks.  Wasn't it originally intended to be that each day's projection during the 4-weeks would be more than 15% availability.   That interpretation makes sense to me.


What about the issue of what happens if tomorrow's availability is < 15% and the projection at 4-weeks out is < 15%?  I would read this as to mean that it should apply again.  In the extreme, consider if availability drops to 0% tomorrow.
That the availability < 15% causes the terms of the order to again take effect, until #6 applies again.


Then there's the matter of the actual numbers.  Looking just at the county's numbers, rather than the regions...
For Sacramento county, the county's dashboard shows 544-421 = 123 ICU beds available, while the state shows 83 ICU beds available (and never anything near 120).  While for Santa Clara, the county shows 23 and  the state shows 45.  Maybe the state is recording ICU patients by residence, not by the hospital.  In any case, it is difficult to understand.
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#2
Not surprising. I hope the order is lifted in time for my birthday in Contra Costa. About two week from now. . .

The cynic in me thinks The Gov has realized the recall has legs, and he better open up things quickly, or his dream of being The Prez will be toast.
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#3
If Sacramento is out of the regional stay-at-home order, why isn't SoCal?  What if I told you that California projections are that SoCal will have at least 14% ICU availability tomorrow (assuming 0% availability today)...

Yep, here is the state's graph of the actual & projected number of ICU patients (middle curve).  In the details, there are 3568 actual patients on Jan 13.  The prediction for Jan 14 is 3078 ICU patients.  That's a decrease of 490 beds or about 14% overnight.

By 4 weeks out, the ridiculous drop overnight continues to be a drop of 605, or 17%.    

If the number of ICU beds drops 20% in the numbers of Jan 14, I'll eat my hat.  I'd more likely believe that the governor will announce that SoCal is out of the regional stay-at-home based on entirely unbelievable projections.


[Image: So-Cal-Covid-Proj20210114.png]

Where does their estimate come from?  Here is L.A. County by itself.  As you can tell the ensemble projection is closely tracking the UCLA projection that seems responsible for this crazy discontinuity.

Look at how wildly different are the suite of projections.   The LEMMA projections seem most reasonable among these for the data, but that's not what the state seems to be using.

[Image: LACo-Covid-Proj20210114.png]
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#4
(01-15-2021, 05:16 AM)M_T Wrote: If Sacramento is out of the regional stay-at-home order, why isn't SoCal?  What if I told you that California projections are that SoCal will have at least 14% ICU availability tomorrow (assuming 0% availability today)...

Yep, here is the state's graph of the actual & projected number of ICU patients (middle curve).  In the details, there are 3568 actual patients on Jan 13.  The prediction for Jan 14 is 3078 ICU patients.  That's a decrease of 490 beds or about 14% overnight.

By 4 weeks out, the ridiculous drop overnight continues to be a drop of 605, or 17%.    

If the number of ICU beds drops 20% in the numbers of Jan 14, I'll eat my hat.  I'd more likely believe that the governor will announce that SoCal is out of the regional stay-at-home based on entirely unbelievable projections.


[Image: So-Cal-Covid-Proj20210114.png]

Where does their estimate come from?  Here is L.A. County by itself.  As you can tell the ensemble projection is closely tracking the UCLA projection that seems responsible for this crazy discontinuity.

Look at how wildly different are the suite of projections.   The LEMMA projections seem most reasonable among these for the data, but that's not what the state seems to be using.

[Image: LACo-Covid-Proj20210114.png]
Just in time for youth sports to start up!
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