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Odds & Ends
#1
Stanford has two contributors to information about COVID.
Michael Lin (middle initial Z.  There is at least one other Michael Lin at Stanford) continues to be an active contributor of information.  The most recent on his twitter feed has some educated guesses at the effectiveness of the J&J vaccine.  (Note: He is a friend of my nephew).   (This came up on Google News for me.)


Steve Shafer continues his weekly updates of COVID info.  From June 28:

US: [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]Weekly case rates are decelerating 2% and weekly death rates are decelerating 1.4% over the past 21 days[/color]
Israel: [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]Israel is of interest because it leads the world in vaccinations.  Weekly case rates are accelerating 13% and weekly death rates are decelerating 12.6% over the past 21 days. As elsewhere in the world, the surge is being driven by the Delta variant[/color]
Australia: [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]Australia’s strategy of aggressive elimination is being tested by the Delta variant. Weekly case rates are accelerating 6.7% and weekly death rate is essentially unchanged over the past 21 days. Sydney has instituted an aggressive lockdown to stop and reverse the current surge.[/color]
South Africa: [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]South Africa is seeing a dramatic surge in cases.... Weekly case rates are accelerating 5.1% and weekly death rates are accelerating 2.5% over the past 21 days.[/color]
UK: [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]The United Kingdom is one of the most highly vaccinated countries in the world. However, the Delta variant is surging, despite 68% immunity, as seen in the figure below..... Weekly case rates are accelerating 5.1% and weekly death rates are accelerating 4.2% over the past 21 days.[/color]

[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]Sweden and Norway continue to show opposite effects of very different approaches to the pandemic. 12% of the population of Sweden was infected, one in every 8 individuals (second highest in the world), and one in every 620 died. In adjacent Norway it is one in every 36 infected, and 1 in 6000 died.[/color]

-------
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]A preprint from the Department of Neurosciences at the John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK, documents that SARS-CoV-2 infection results in loss of grey matter in multiple brain regions (see https://1drv.ms/b/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7tsRdDrFn...Q?e=vQyGsj). The authors compared pre COVID to post COVID brain scans in 394 subjects and 388 matched controls. The difference was highly statistically significant, but the observed difference was far smaller than the intersubject difference.[/color]
------
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]In an attempt to develop an “uber-vaccine”, Martinez and colleagues developed an mRNA sequence for a chimeric Spike protein, and demonstrated protection “to SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351, bat CoV (Bt-CoV) RsSHC014, and a heterologous Bt-CoV WIV-1 in vulnerable aged mice.” (see [/url]https://1drv.ms/b/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7tsRhrcHd...A?e=Ftt879). The vaccine is an mRNA – lipid nanoparticle, similar to the Pfizer and Moderna RNA vaccines. The authors of the Science paper conclude “Our demonstration” n of cross-protection against multiple Sarbecovirus strains in mice lends support to the hypothesis that universal vaccines against group 2B CoVs are likely achievable.[/color]
-----
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]A perspective in Science looks at the benefit of combining different types of immunity (e.g., vaccination plus infection, or vaccination with different vaccines) to generate hybrid immunity, drawing a parallel to the concept of “hybrid vigor” in plants and animals in which separate strains are intentionally cross-bred. [I think this is generic, not COVID-specific]
Serendipitously, a concurrent paper in The Lancet demonstrates exactly this concept, showing that the Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine provides particularly robust immunity when given after the AstraZeneca ADZ1222 (ChADOx1-S) vaccine (seehttps://1drv.ms/b/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7tsRnClaV...A?e=bTebXn and https://1drv.ms/b/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7tsRor4QN...g?e=Ka3q1F, an accompanying editorial on heterologous vaccines).[/color]
------
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]A letter in the New England Journal of Medicine reports administration of 3 doses of the Pfizer BNT162b2 rRNA vaccine to transplant patients (see https://1drv.ms/b/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7tsRlixyf...g?e=DGbvOD). The third dose significantly improved immunogenicity, but still left about a third of the patients with inadequate immunity.[/color]
-----
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]A paper in the Lancet documents that two doses of the Pfizer BNT162b2 is more efficacious against the Delta variant than two doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca ADZ1222 vaccine (see https://1drv.ms/b/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7tsRmJWOn...w?e=243GIO). “Our data are consistent with preliminary observational estimates based on rates of S gene target failure during PCR testing in England8 and more recent data from Scotland,9 which reports 19% reduced AZD1222 efficacy following two doses (60%) relative to two doses of BNT162b2 (79%) against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant.”[/color]

(end of material from Steve Shafer)


As you've probably heard, L.A. County has urged everyone to continue wearing masks because cases are rising quickly.
The L.A. Times has some graphs.  From June 24 ("24.6" on the graph) to July 1, the 7-day average number of cases has doubled and hospitalized COVID patients are up 20% or so.  "As of Thursday [June 30], 245 Delta cases had been confirmed countywide — twice as many as last week."

While the Times article notes that the Bay Area has a higher rate of vaccinations (67.2%/75.2% in SF, 66.5%/73.7% in SCC, 50.9%/58.9% in LA), I would note that Israel (57%/62%) and the UK (50%/67%) number of infections are climbing (above)

----
Apparently the symptoms of the Delta variant are somewhat different.  The self-reported symptoms are
1) Headache, 2) sore throat, 3) runny nose, 4) fever, 5) persistent cough

It is possible that people aren't recognizing they have COVID as they don't have the cough & fever.
----
One report out of Stanford suggested that kids might not have as severe COVID because they've recently been exposed to other Coronaviruses in the school petri dishes.   If true, then it should show up as significant differences in severity when comparing those in day-care/school versus those that are home-school.  I only saw a headline, so I don't know that they made that comparison.

---
A South Korean study indicates that they believe the first infection spot is the ciliated cells in the nostrils.  (My guess is that the nature of the exposure impacts that.  If you are exposed to smaller (aerosol) particles, maybe it is more likely deep in the lungs, while exposure to larger particles would match what they report.  If you ingest food with the virus on it, then a different initial infection route seems likely.)

This report was tied to urging people to wear masks that cover their noses.
-----

50. MS:  36.3%/29.9% of the population have at least one dose/fully vaccinated
49. LA:  38.7%/35.3%
48. ID: 39.8%/36.3%
47. WY: 39.9%/35.4%
...                  US: 54.9%/47.4%
12 CA: 61.9%/50.4%
...
3 HI: 70.1%/52.2%
2 MA: 70.8%/61.1%
1 VT: 74.2%/66%
Reply
#2
(07-04-2021, 12:43 PM)M_T Wrote: Stanford has two contributors to information about COVID.
Michael Lin (middle initial Z.  There is at least one other Michael Lin at Stanford) continues to be an active contributor of information.  The most recent on his twitter feed has some educated guesses at the effectiveness of the J&J vaccine.  (Note: He is a friend of my nephew).   (This came up on Google News for me.)


Steve Shafer continues his weekly updates of COVID info.  From June 28:

US: [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]Weekly case rates are decelerating 2% and weekly death rates are decelerating 1.4% over the past 21 days[/color]
Israel: [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]Israel is of interest because it leads the world in vaccinations.  Weekly case rates are accelerating 13% and weekly death rates are decelerating 12.6% over the past 21 days. As elsewhere in the world, the surge is being driven by the Delta variant[/color]
Australia: [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]Australia’s strategy of aggressive elimination is being tested by the Delta variant. Weekly case rates are accelerating 6.7% and weekly death rate is essentially unchanged over the past 21 days. Sydney has instituted an aggressive lockdown to stop and reverse the current surge.[/color]
South Africa: [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]South Africa is seeing a dramatic surge in cases.... Weekly case rates are accelerating 5.1% and weekly death rates are accelerating 2.5% over the past 21 days.[/color]
UK: [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]The United Kingdom is one of the most highly vaccinated countries in the world. However, the Delta variant is surging, despite 68% immunity, as seen in the figure below..... Weekly case rates are accelerating 5.1% and weekly death rates are accelerating 4.2% over the past 21 days.[/color]

[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]Sweden and Norway continue to show opposite effects of very different approaches to the pandemic. 12% of the population of Sweden was infected, one in every 8 individuals (second highest in the world), and one in every 620 died. In adjacent Norway it is one in every 36 infected, and 1 in 6000 died.[/color]

-------
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]A preprint from the Department of Neurosciences at the John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK, documents that SARS-CoV-2 infection results in loss of grey matter in multiple brain regions (see https://1drv.ms/b/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7tsRdDrFn...Q?e=vQyGsj). The authors compared pre COVID to post COVID brain scans in 394 subjects and 388 matched controls. The difference was highly statistically significant, but the observed difference was far smaller than the intersubject difference.[/color]
------
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]In an attempt to develop an “uber-vaccine”, Martinez and colleagues developed an mRNA sequence for a chimeric Spike protein, and demonstrated protection “to SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351, bat CoV (Bt-CoV) RsSHC014, and a heterologous Bt-CoV WIV-1 in vulnerable aged mice.” (see [/url]https://1drv.ms/b/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7tsRhrcHd...A?e=Ftt879). The vaccine is an mRNA – lipid nanoparticle, similar to the Pfizer and Moderna RNA vaccines. The authors of the Science paper conclude “Our demonstration” n of cross-protection against multiple Sarbecovirus strains in mice lends support to the hypothesis that universal vaccines against group 2B CoVs are likely achievable.[/color]
-----
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]A perspective in Science looks at the benefit of combining different types of immunity (e.g., vaccination plus infection, or vaccination with different vaccines) to generate hybrid immunity, drawing a parallel to the concept of “hybrid vigor” in plants and animals in which separate strains are intentionally cross-bred. [I think this is generic, not COVID-specific]
Serendipitously, a concurrent paper in The Lancet demonstrates exactly this concept, showing that the Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine provides particularly robust immunity when given after the AstraZeneca ADZ1222 (ChADOx1-S) vaccine (seehttps://1drv.ms/b/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7tsRnClaV...A?e=bTebXn and https://1drv.ms/b/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7tsRor4QN...g?e=Ka3q1F, an accompanying editorial on heterologous vaccines).[/color]
------
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]A letter in the New England Journal of Medicine reports administration of 3 doses of the Pfizer BNT162b2 rRNA vaccine to transplant patients (see https://1drv.ms/b/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7tsRlixyf...g?e=DGbvOD). The third dose significantly improved immunogenicity, but still left about a third of the patients with inadequate immunity.[/color]
-----
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]A paper in the Lancet documents that two doses of the Pfizer BNT162b2 is more efficacious against the Delta variant than two doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca ADZ1222 vaccine (see https://1drv.ms/b/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7tsRmJWOn...w?e=243GIO). “Our data are consistent with preliminary observational estimates based on rates of S gene target failure during PCR testing in England8 and more recent data from Scotland,9 which reports 19% reduced AZD1222 efficacy following two doses (60%) relative to two doses of BNT162b2 (79%) against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant.”[/color]

(end of material from Steve Shafer)


As you've probably heard, L.A. County has urged everyone to continue wearing masks because cases are rising quickly.
The L.A. Times has some graphs.  From June 24 ("24.6" on the graph) to July 1, the 7-day average number of cases has doubled and hospitalized COVID patients are up 20% or so.  "As of Thursday [June 30], 245 Delta cases had been confirmed countywide — twice as many as last week."

While the Times article notes that the Bay Area has a higher rate of vaccinations (67.2%/75.2% in SF, 66.5%/73.7% in SCC, 50.9%/58.9% in LA), I would note that Israel (57%/62%) and the UK (50%/67%) number of infections are climbing (above)

----
Apparently the symptoms of the Delta variant are somewhat different.  The self-reported symptoms are
1) Headache, 2) sore throat, 3) runny nose, 4) fever, 5) persistent cough

It is possible that people aren't recognizing they have COVID as they don't have the cough & fever.
----
One report out of Stanford suggested that kids might not have as severe COVID because they've recently been exposed to other Coronaviruses in the school petri dishes.   If true, then it should show up as significant differences in severity when comparing those in day-care/school versus those that are home-school.  I only saw a headline, so I don't know that they made that comparison.

---
A South Korean study indicates that they believe the first infection spot is the ciliated cells in the nostrils.  (My guess is that the nature of the exposure impacts that.  If you are exposed to smaller (aerosol) particles, maybe it is more likely deep in the lungs, while exposure to larger particles would match what they report.  If you ingest food with the virus on it, then a different initial infection route seems likely.)

This report was tied to urging people to wear masks that cover their noses.
-----

50. MS:  36.3%/29.9% of the population have at least one dose/fully vaccinated
49. LA:  38.7%/35.3%
48. ID: 39.8%/36.3%
47. WY: 39.9%/35.4%
...                  US: 54.9%/47.4%
12 CA: 61.9%/50.4%
...
3 HI: 70.1%/52.2%
2 MA: 70.8%/61.1%
1 VT: 74.2%/66%


More on Sweden's results:

https://unherd.com/thepost/anders-tegnel...-on-covid/
Reply
#3
I fail to be surprised at anyone saying they feel vindicated for choosing any choice, especially those that could be held accountable for the negative outcomes of their choices.

I'm not sure that the surviving relatives of those who died would agree with Sweden's relative excess deaths. There's a lot of them.
If you're older than half the population, it sure doesn't sound like Sweden would be a good place to live.

Sweden has twice the population than each of 3 neighboring countries.
AFAIK, they have similar weather, similar demographics, & similar travel but I haven't confirmed that.
The population density profiles may be different for each country.

Sweden 10,177,724: 1,149,407 cases; 14,821 deaths. Deaths/100K: 145.62
Norway 5,391,369: 186,349 cases; 850 deaths Deaths/100K: 15.77
Finland 5,540,720: 138,578 cases; 1066 deaths. Deaths/100K: 19.24
Denmark 5,792,202: 358,352 cases; 2652 deaths. Deaths/100K: 45.79

Countries that have different conditions:
Germany 83,783,942: 4,193,094 cases; 93,388 deaths. Deaths/100K: 111.46
France 65,273,511: 7,075,459 cases; 117,157 deaths. Deaths/100K: 179.49

US: 331,000,000: 42,874,839 cases; 687,572 deaths. Deaths/100K: 207.7
California: 39,538,223: 4,653,610 cases; 68,087 deaths. Deaths/100K: 172.0
Reply
#4
a difference that is an order of magnitude is pretty convincing.  and I am not hearing gnashing of teeth from my relatives in Norway over the damage to their economy.
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