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Only 8 Covid inpatients left
#1
in the Alameda County Hospital system. This of course does not count Kaiser or Sutter. Or independent hospitals. We have closed down all of our Covid specific wards.
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#2
That's fantastic. As I've mentioned, they've done a great job in Alameda County. Congrats!
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#3
THat is great.   But I learned yesterday that the county around Eugene, Oregon declared a COVID emergency?   Does anyone have any details?
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#4
(05-01-2021, 04:07 PM)Hurlburt88 Wrote: THat is great.   But I learned yesterday that the county around Eugene, Oregon declared a COVID emergency?   Does anyone have any details?
This week, the governor extended the state of emergency for 60 days.
The state is having 135 new infections in 7 days per 100K population.  (Compare to the 29/100K in California, and the US average of 106.5/100K)
Oregon is currently having about 3.3x the new infections as early in March, or about 60% of the highest levels they've recorded.

Eugene is in Lane County.  When I look at that county in the CDC data,  
3.19% positivity in the testing.  The rate of new infections is 104/100K

However, Grant County has a 7-day case rate of 650/100K with 15+% positivity, but it is not a very populous county.
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#5
(05-01-2021, 09:57 PM)M_T Wrote:
(05-01-2021, 04:07 PM)Hurlburt88 Wrote: THat is great.   But I learned yesterday that the county around Eugene, Oregon declared a COVID emergency?   Does anyone have any details?
This week, the governor extended the state of emergency for 60 days.
The state is having 135 new infections in 7 days per 100K population.  (Compare to the 29/100K in California, and the US average of 106.5/100K)
Oregon is currently having about 3.3x the new infections as early in March, or about 60% of the highest levels they've recorded.

Eugene is in Lane County.  When I look at that county in the CDC data,  
3.19% positivity in the testing.  The rate of new infections is 104/100K

However, Grant County has a 7-day case rate of 650/100K with 15+% positivity, but it is not a very populous county.
Time for Newsom to close the northern border.
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#6
Now down to 3 inpatients. We are now down to 50-60 new cases a day in Alameda County.

I ordered tests on 5 kids today. I'm pretty suspicious about 1 of the families involved - one of the kids was exposed to an infected kid at school.
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#7
California is somewhere around 35 new cases per week per 100K.

That's 5 new (presumably symptomatic) cases per day per 100K. Let's assume that 90% of the cases are symptomatic and expose contacts for 3 days and 10% are asymptomatic and are infectious for 10 days.
So that's 15 presymptomatic cases (5 * 3) and roughly 5 asymptomatic cases (5/9 *10), a total of 20, that aren't quarantined each day per 100K. (I expect there really are at least 2x or more that actually know they have COVID but don't get tested.)

That means if you interact (by whatever definition) with 100 people in a day, the chance that one of them has COVID is about 100*(20/100,000). That's a 2% chance that any of the 100 are infectious.

I flew on a plane today (1 hr flight within California) with about 60 others (we were in the same gate area, stood in the same line to get into and out of the plane, and sat on the plane together). Even at California levels, that's more than a 1% chance that one of them was infectious. By CDC guidelines, the only one I was "exposed" to (15 min, within 6') would be the driver that took me home.

(Of course, I kept my distance. I wasn't within 15' of anyone in the gate area until the boarding of the plane. I saw no one unmasked. I was the only one in my set of 3 seats on my side of the aisle. There was nobody in the row in front of me (I don't know about behind me). I was wearing a KN95 (and glasses & hat) and touched a minimal number of surfaces. I did get a ride home via a Airporter-type vehicle, but had the window partly down (it was down when I got in). When I got home, I showered & changed clothes.)
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#8
All 5 of the kids I tested were negative. Only 35 positive cases in Alameda County today.
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#9
Are you seeing other respiratory infections now? Colds, flu, ...
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#10
(05-07-2021, 06:35 AM)M_T Wrote: Are you seeing other respiratory infections now?  Colds, flu, ...
We are seeing kids who likely have allergies. Now and then we get a call regarding a kid with fever and cough with a negative Covid test, likely representing other respiratory viruses. Some of the likely allergy kids ar getting Covid tests so they can get back into daycare. 

Not many infectious diseases around right now.
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