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Looking ahead on vaccines

Article I ran across this morning that I find interesting as it could tell us what we are looking at in 6 months
(08-11-2021, 07:51 AM)Hurlburt88 Wrote:
Here's the actual paper (pre-print)
Immune Correlates Analysis of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial

Quote:In conclusion, the result that all evaluated binding and neutralizing antibody markers strongly inversely correlated with COVID-19 risk, and directly correlated with vaccine efficacy, as well as the result that a substantial proportion of the overall vaccine efficacy was mediated through neutralizing antibody levels, adds evidence toward establishing an immune marker surrogate endpoint for COVID-19 vaccines.

As I understand it, they were studying the blood of those that got the Moderna vaccine (in Moderna trials, not the general population) and seeing which individuals got COVID subsequently.    They were looking for markers that show how effective the vaccine will be (for the individual, and for the group) at reducing the chance of getting COVID.   Finding such markers would allow faster & smaller trials for vaccine testing. Rather than wait 4 months to see how many got COVID, they could wait a shorter amount of time (57 or 29 days) and see whether the markers are present.

The didn't say it, but I would bet this also allows for predicting that the vaccine's protectiveness has faded and that it is time to get boosters.

I find it both interesting and a bit concerning that so many vaccines started development but only 3 have some level of approval in the US.   Astra Zeneca seems stalled, and Novavax is another I expected to get approval that has gone relatively quiet.   Any perspective from anyone on any other vaccines potentially gaining approval?
Novavax clinical trial participants who got both shots of the actual vaccine are considered to be fully vaccinated.

Novavax appears to have had better results than J&J.
"100% protection against moderate and severe disease, 90.4% efficacy overall"
"Efficacy endpoints were accrued from January 25 through April 30, 2021 — a time when the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant, first identified in the U.K., became the predominant strain in the U.S"

As of June 14, "The company intends to file for regulatory authorizations in the third quarter, upon completion of the final phases of process qualification and assay validation needed to meet chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) requirements."

Short blurb on potential need for updated vaccines in the future
WSJ editorial opinion on the long-term benefits of mRNA vaccines beyond COVID.   Unfortuately may be behind a paywall
NOt sure how new this is . . .

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