01-23-2021, 02:31 PM
M_T that's a lot of words. I am not sure what your point is, except that the reproduction rate is a driver. However, the mortality rate is a multiplier (not good if it goes up).
Yes, the reproduction rate is critical. Yet, the mortality rate matters too. Let's say that 4,000 people die in the US per day today. If the rate per thousand goes from 10 to 15 (just to make math simple, but I concede its't 13-14), then it's 6,000 per day. That's a big deal.
My point was that not only is it more infectious, but it's also more deadly. So we have this infection rate that an official in Denmark thinks is so bad that lockdowns don't stop it and the increased mortality makes for an even worse disaster.
I admit that we are reeling from new information that is not vetted and likely to be revised, but the multiplicative effect of higher R and mortality is frightening.
Right now, I'd take the vaccine with a way lower bar for safety.
I'd also like to comment on your anecdote. So many people we considered "careful" end up saying things that show me they just don't get it. The latest anecdote is that my father in law went to TJ's to buy a case of two buck chuck before he got his first shot. "I can't stand not participating in the commercial environment." he said. I wanted to reply impolitely: "Really? You don't care about dying or killing others?" Our family currently does not trust anyone to be in a bubble with. With the potential of vaccine availability increasing rapidly due to production schedule and additional EUAs, we should all be hunkering down more than ever because there are bad signs (increased mortality and infection rate) and good signs (more doses). Being paranoid right now is the best time to do so.
Yes, the reproduction rate is critical. Yet, the mortality rate matters too. Let's say that 4,000 people die in the US per day today. If the rate per thousand goes from 10 to 15 (just to make math simple, but I concede its't 13-14), then it's 6,000 per day. That's a big deal.
My point was that not only is it more infectious, but it's also more deadly. So we have this infection rate that an official in Denmark thinks is so bad that lockdowns don't stop it and the increased mortality makes for an even worse disaster.
I admit that we are reeling from new information that is not vetted and likely to be revised, but the multiplicative effect of higher R and mortality is frightening.
Right now, I'd take the vaccine with a way lower bar for safety.
I'd also like to comment on your anecdote. So many people we considered "careful" end up saying things that show me they just don't get it. The latest anecdote is that my father in law went to TJ's to buy a case of two buck chuck before he got his first shot. "I can't stand not participating in the commercial environment." he said. I wanted to reply impolitely: "Really? You don't care about dying or killing others?" Our family currently does not trust anyone to be in a bubble with. With the potential of vaccine availability increasing rapidly due to production schedule and additional EUAs, we should all be hunkering down more than ever because there are bad signs (increased mortality and infection rate) and good signs (more doses). Being paranoid right now is the best time to do so.