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Boris Johnson: UK Mutation may be more lethal, as well
(01-22-2021, 04:39 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:

At a Friday news briefing at 10 Downing Street, Johnson and his advisers gave the first indication that the strain might also be more deadly.

England's chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, offered an example. He said that among 1,000 men in England age 60 years or older, the original virus would kill 10. The new variant, he said, would kill 13 or 14. That would represent a 30 percent rise in mortality, though it is important to note that absolute risk of death remains low.
13 vs. 10 is a big deal. This multiplies the number of deaths by a lot when considering the increased infectiousness.

What remains unsaid is the rate of hospitalization/ICU care required. That can also be significant.

It appears that Denmark is sequencing every known case of COVID. Krause, director of  Denmark’s State Serum Institute voiced concern that even the hefty lockdowns that they manage in Denmark won't control the virus.  (Link below).  In the US we sequence 0.3% of the cases. I do not have the competence to state whether that is sufficient to track such a phenomenon, but I am not confident that we know what is going on here. The article made it seem like Krause was worried that expotential growth of the virus despite lockdown would overwhelm the country before enough vaccines are available. I think this is very bad news.

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RE: Boris Johnson: UK Mutation may be more lethal, as well - by ChrisGreene - 01-23-2021, 05:33 AM

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