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Trying to define the problem away?
#1
The CDC redefined "high" (etc) levels of community transmission to even higher levels by introducing "community levels" in March. What used to be high community transmission levels would most likely now be low community levels.


Ten months ago, CNN reported that the CDC definition was for "community transmission level"

Quote:Specifically, a "Low" transmission is considered no more than 10 cases per 100,000 people, or a test positivity rate of less than 5%. "Moderate" transmission is 10 to 50 cases per 100,000 people, or a positivity rate between 5% and 8%. "Substantial" transmission is 50 to 100 cases per 100,000, or a positivity rate between 8% and 10%, and "high" transmission is 100 or more cases per 100,000 people or a positivity rate of 10% or higher.

If a county has values in two different transmission levels, then the CDC uses the metric that is higher.


Now, the CDC changed its term to "community level".  It uses a combination of positive cases and hospital admissions.  (I guess that counties that have no hospitals count as having 0 hospital admissions and 0% staffed beds in use (vs the equally valid 100% in use).)'

If you've got more than 200 people per 100K who bothered to report a positive test during a week, then you're Medium if the number of new hospital admissions is less than 10 per 100K in a week, and the % of staffed beds in use for COVID patients over the 7-days is < 10%.
If you've got less than 200 people per 100K who bothered report a positive test during a week, then you're Low with that number of hospital admissions or staffed beds.   You have to get to 20 new COVID admissions per 100K in a week, or over 15% staffed beds over the 7-days.

Santa Clara County (CA) is reporting 827 daily new cases = 5789/week = 296 weekly cases/100K.   That seems a pretty high transmission level, even if hospitals haven't been fully hit yet.   The 7-day average % positive is at 6.6% which is the highest non-January rate in the county.   The current peak of cases is the highest peak other than January 2021 and January 2022 (easily beating the July 2021 and July 2020 peaks). (And, oh yea, 85% of everyone in the county (including 0-4 year olds) has been vaccinated.)

The number of hospitalized patients with COVID has averaged 116 for the past week.
The number of newly hospitalized patients with COVID over the past 7 days is 185.  That's 9.5 per 100K, just short of the 10 to put SCC in the high community level.

In my opinion, for an individual, it is the "community transmission levels" that matter, not the "community level." I don't want to get COVID. Hospitalizations of other people don't matter for that criteria.

I'm sure the political party in charge was happy to change a mostly yellow map (now no longer available) to a mostly green map by changing the definition.
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Messages In This Thread
Trying to define the problem away? - by M_T - 05-20-2022, 11:47 AM
RE: Trying to define the problem away? - by M_T - 06-02-2022, 04:06 PM
RE: Trying to define the problem away? - by M_T - 06-03-2022, 03:50 AM

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