12-31-2021, 04:51 AM
Another misleading aspect of this 85-90% claim:
Consider all the people that you have close contact with in the 14 days (or whatever length). What % of them did you first have close contact with within 5 days? Who do you have close contact outside of family and coworkers?
If the average were (say) 85% of close contacts are first exposed within 5 days, then wouldn't that mean that the 15% that were after 5 days are essentially all getting sick? Ie, anyone exposed 5 days to end of the period would likely be infected.
The point is that this statistic (% of infections before/after 5 days) is meaningless without knowing the % of people exposed before/after 5 days.
Consider all the people that you have close contact with in the 14 days (or whatever length). What % of them did you first have close contact with within 5 days? Who do you have close contact outside of family and coworkers?
If the average were (say) 85% of close contacts are first exposed within 5 days, then wouldn't that mean that the 15% that were after 5 days are essentially all getting sick? Ie, anyone exposed 5 days to end of the period would likely be infected.
The point is that this statistic (% of infections before/after 5 days) is meaningless without knowing the % of people exposed before/after 5 days.