01-10-2021, 01:24 PM
Snorlax, I think your calculations of "weekly" numbers don't match the supply (obviously not in quantity nor in schedule).
You've shown something like a Ponzi scheme where there is always more coming in
... until there isn't.
As I understand it, the expected original 200M doses are expected around the end of February. Then and additional 100M Pfizer are due by June 30; 70M Moderna by June 30; 30M Moderna by July 31. (I could have Pfizer & Moderna swapped regarding the 70/30 split.)
So, the purchased production of vaccine doses is roughly (my estimation of schedule, not anything announced after February. The goal of 100M by end of February was announced early and may have slipped.).
December: 40M (actually less)
January: 60M
February: 100M
March: 0
April: 50M
May: 60M
June: 60M
July: 30M
If more doses are purchased from Pfizer or Moderna, I expect they'll not be available until July.
If no change is made to distribution, there would be 20M first & second doses delivered, an additional 30M first doses delivered by the end of January with 30M 2nd doses stored for those people. There'd be another set of 50M people in February that would get first doses (and 2nd doses in March).
When Biden comes into power, there will be about 35M first doses and 15M 2nd doses delivered to the states with 20M 2nd doses in reserve.
Unless he forces Pfizer & Moderna to screw over the other countries who have contracts for deliveries in March, he is stuck with the same result: 100M people with first doses by sometime in February with 2nd doses stretching into March. In order to meet the 3 or 4 week second dose timeline, he's going to have to stockpile up to 50M doses from February for use in March.
Maybe he moves some first doses up by 2 weeks by shipping out the 20M in late January.
But, as was said in the California vaccine committee, vaccines don't protect the people, vaccinations do. Shipping out the doses doesn't mean they will do anything but sit on the shelf in the states.
By the way, my calculation is that California phase 1B tier 2 will be partially covered before the March hole in the schedule of vaccine availability. Being the first of that group means something like a 2-month difference in when you get the vaccine versus those just behind you.
You've shown something like a Ponzi scheme where there is always more coming in
... until there isn't.
As I understand it, the expected original 200M doses are expected around the end of February. Then and additional 100M Pfizer are due by June 30; 70M Moderna by June 30; 30M Moderna by July 31. (I could have Pfizer & Moderna swapped regarding the 70/30 split.)
So, the purchased production of vaccine doses is roughly (my estimation of schedule, not anything announced after February. The goal of 100M by end of February was announced early and may have slipped.).
December: 40M (actually less)
January: 60M
February: 100M
March: 0
April: 50M
May: 60M
June: 60M
July: 30M
If more doses are purchased from Pfizer or Moderna, I expect they'll not be available until July.
If no change is made to distribution, there would be 20M first & second doses delivered, an additional 30M first doses delivered by the end of January with 30M 2nd doses stored for those people. There'd be another set of 50M people in February that would get first doses (and 2nd doses in March).
When Biden comes into power, there will be about 35M first doses and 15M 2nd doses delivered to the states with 20M 2nd doses in reserve.
Unless he forces Pfizer & Moderna to screw over the other countries who have contracts for deliveries in March, he is stuck with the same result: 100M people with first doses by sometime in February with 2nd doses stretching into March. In order to meet the 3 or 4 week second dose timeline, he's going to have to stockpile up to 50M doses from February for use in March.
Maybe he moves some first doses up by 2 weeks by shipping out the 20M in late January.
But, as was said in the California vaccine committee, vaccines don't protect the people, vaccinations do. Shipping out the doses doesn't mean they will do anything but sit on the shelf in the states.
By the way, my calculation is that California phase 1B tier 2 will be partially covered before the March hole in the schedule of vaccine availability. Being the first of that group means something like a 2-month difference in when you get the vaccine versus those just behind you.