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Biden & Single shot/Delayed Second Shot
I agree that the holdup is with the counties, which have been sitting on the vaccine that they have, but I suspect the delay is in their attitude, not in their capacity, so the hope is this change will help unclog the counties that have been slow. So I am in favor of the Accelerated Biden plan, though of course there are risks.

I assume the way they will do this is by, as new vaccine is produced, to prioritize the new inventory FIRST to make sure people get their second shot. BUT you still accelerate rollout by not having vaccine sitting around for 3 weeks.. Let’s say vaccine production looks like this (numbers are millions of people, assuming people are vaccinated as soon as vaccine is earmarked, which we know isn’t happening, but bear with me)

Week 1   2.    3.   4.   5.    6.   7.   8
Dos.  10  12   14  16  18   20   22  24
current plan # ppl 1 shot
         5   11   18  26  35   45   56  68
Current plan # ppl receive 2 shots
         0    0     0    5   11   18  26  35

IE in week 1, you produce 10M doses, but only vaccinate 5M people and hold the other 5M doses for the second shot. In week two, you produce 12M doses, but give only 6M more people a dose, and reserve the other 6M doses you produced for 3 weeks.

Biden plan, use all vaccine as it comes in, but prioritize
Second shots first, Assuming same production schedule as above
     # people each week (cumul) who have received one shot
         10  22  36 42  48  54   60  72

    Biden plan, # ppl who’ve refeived 2 shots (cumul)
          0   0    0  10   22    36  42  48

IE in week 1, you produce 10M doses and give 10M shots. In week 2 you produce 12M doses and give 12M shots. In week 3 you produce 14M doses and give 14M shots. In week 4 you produce 16M shots, and you earmark 10M for the people who got their first shot 3 weeks ago, so only 6M more new people get first shots. In week 5 you produce 18M shots, and you earmark the first 12M doses for people who got their first shot 3 weeks ago, and give the remaining 6M doses as first shots.

Everybody still gets their second shot 3 weeks after getting their first shot, but you get a burst now, which will be especially helpful for the elderly.

I am not advocating the UK plan, which seems reckless, but with the Biden plan, by not having ready vaccine just sitting around with a reserved sticker on it, we get more people vaccinated faster.

And actually, more people will receive their SECOND SHOT SOONER also!

The downside of the Biden plan is what if there is a disruption in production and you don’t produce enough one week to give a second dose to the people who got their first dose 3 weeks ago.

That is a risk, but given the number of people dying each week, and given the assurances from mfgrs, I think it’s worth taking.

Or MT, to put it in your parlance, my understanding is that the Biden plan is your approach #1
I agree it has less of an impact than the UK Plan (everyone gets first doses first and figure the second dose out later), but I think approach #1 (prioritizing 2nd doses without squatting on second doses) gives you an initial burst NOW, which I think is what we really need because the initial launch has been very slow, we’re in the middle of the worst wave ever, and we have not yet vaccinated the elderly, and the Biden approach will probably save tens of thousands of lives by getting the elderly vaccinated a month or two earlier.

Messages In This Thread
Biden & Single shot/Delayed Second Shot - by M_T - 01-09-2021, 05:25 AM
RE: Biden & Single shot/Delayed Second Shot - by Snorlax94 - 01-09-2021, 08:37 PM

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