01-09-2021, 05:25 AM
News reports indicate the President-Elect will have Operation Warp Speed ship all doses out as soon as they are manufactured, counting on second doses to come from future manufacturing. Â
This won't help the current situation where the hangup is that the states didn't get their act together of getting doses in arms.  For instance, no  one in California arranged for anything but token vaccination of LTCF residents (in the very first group per CDC recommendation) until Dec. 28, months after they knew it was coming and 2 weeks of it sitting in the refrigerators.
I can see it happening two ways. Â One is that if you get a first dose, you are first in line for your second dose at 3 or 4 weeks, if there are doses available, or as soon afterwards as possible. Â Two is that everyone gets a first dose, and then second doses are distributed, as I understand the UK is doing. Unless the manufacturers (that we know are going full sped) somehow can go at 110% of capacity, this will mean delays of 6-12 months. Â Â I understand the second option is contrary to what the CDC has recommended.
The first option gets a first dose for the 250M eligible (16+) people about June. Â With current purchases of current vaccines, only 150M of those have a second dose by the end of July. Â The remaining 100M are not covered yet.
The second option pushes first doses ahead by 3-4 weeks from the prior schedule. Â The last of the 200M courses are manufactured and arrive by the end of July. Â The 200 millionth second dose will be given in August either way. Â 200M get two doses by August either way, 50M get no doses.
If Biden is going to follow the scientists, he will take the second option. Â At this time we don't know that.
This won't help the current situation where the hangup is that the states didn't get their act together of getting doses in arms.  For instance, no  one in California arranged for anything but token vaccination of LTCF residents (in the very first group per CDC recommendation) until Dec. 28, months after they knew it was coming and 2 weeks of it sitting in the refrigerators.
I can see it happening two ways. Â One is that if you get a first dose, you are first in line for your second dose at 3 or 4 weeks, if there are doses available, or as soon afterwards as possible. Â Two is that everyone gets a first dose, and then second doses are distributed, as I understand the UK is doing. Unless the manufacturers (that we know are going full sped) somehow can go at 110% of capacity, this will mean delays of 6-12 months. Â Â I understand the second option is contrary to what the CDC has recommended.
The first option gets a first dose for the 250M eligible (16+) people about June. Â With current purchases of current vaccines, only 150M of those have a second dose by the end of July. Â The remaining 100M are not covered yet.
The second option pushes first doses ahead by 3-4 weeks from the prior schedule. Â The last of the 200M courses are manufactured and arrive by the end of July. Â The 200 millionth second dose will be given in August either way. Â 200M get two doses by August either way, 50M get no doses.
If Biden is going to follow the scientists, he will take the second option. Â At this time we don't know that.