01-26-2021, 03:11 PM
Updating my earlier numbers (with 65+ moved)
CA Population: 39.5M
 0-15: 7.9M
16-49:Â 18.5M
50-64: 7.3M
65-74: 3.4M
75+:Â Â Â 2.6M
Eligible population (16+): 31.6M
California population numbers for each group below are from CA Vaccine plan  and other planning documents.
Double the numbers for doses needed.
Phase 1-A : 3MÂ 9.5% of eligible population (Originally estimated as 2.5M people (300K Long Term Care residents & staff; 2.2M "front line" health care)Â
  Roughly late January to have enough 1st doses
Phase 1-B Tier 1Â 8.5MÂ 27% (8.5M was before 65-74 added) Â 11M, 35% Â Total 11.5M - 14M or 36% - 44%
 75+: 2.6M   Census says 2.4M. 2.1M is a better estimate (2.4M - 300K LTCF)
 65-74: 2.5M  Census says 3.4M 3.1M is a better estimate (3.4M - 9.5%)
 Education & Child Care: 1.4M
 Emergency Services: 1.1M
 Food and Agriculture: 3.4M
At current production levels, the last of this group get first doses around April 1.
Phase 1-B Tier 2Â 3MÂ 9.5%Â Total:Â 14.5M-17M or 46%-54%
 Critical Manufacturing: 0.5M
 Facilities & Services: 1.1M
 Transportation & Logistics: 1.1M
 Incarcerated: 0.2MÂ
 Homeless: 0.1MÂ
Phase 1-C:Â 12MÂ Â 38%Â Â Total: 26.5M-29M or 84%-92%.
 50-64: 4.9M (7.3M pop - 33% in prior phases)
 16-49 high risk: 5M  (40% of 18.5M 16-49 - 33% in prior phases)
 Chemical 0.2M
 Communications and IT 0.3M
 Defense 0.06M
 Energy 0.1M
 Finance 0.6M
 Govt Ops, Community-Based 0.9M
 Water and Wastewater 0.02M
Everyone else:Â 2.6M - 5M
CA Population: 39.5M
 0-15: 7.9M
16-49:Â 18.5M
50-64: 7.3M
65-74: 3.4M
75+:Â Â Â 2.6M
Eligible population (16+): 31.6M
California population numbers for each group below are from CA Vaccine plan  and other planning documents.
Double the numbers for doses needed.
Phase 1-A : 3MÂ 9.5% of eligible population (Originally estimated as 2.5M people (300K Long Term Care residents & staff; 2.2M "front line" health care)Â
  Roughly late January to have enough 1st doses
Phase 1-B Tier 1Â 8.5MÂ 27% (8.5M was before 65-74 added) Â 11M, 35% Â Total 11.5M - 14M or 36% - 44%
 75+: 2.6M   Census says 2.4M. 2.1M is a better estimate (2.4M - 300K LTCF)
 65-74: 2.5M  Census says 3.4M 3.1M is a better estimate (3.4M - 9.5%)
 Education & Child Care: 1.4M
 Emergency Services: 1.1M
 Food and Agriculture: 3.4M
At current production levels, the last of this group get first doses around April 1.
Phase 1-B Tier 2Â 3MÂ 9.5%Â Total:Â 14.5M-17M or 46%-54%
 Critical Manufacturing: 0.5M
 Facilities & Services: 1.1M
 Transportation & Logistics: 1.1M
 Incarcerated: 0.2MÂ
 Homeless: 0.1MÂ
Phase 1-C:Â 12MÂ Â 38%Â Â Total: 26.5M-29M or 84%-92%.
 50-64: 4.9M (7.3M pop - 33% in prior phases)
 16-49 high risk: 5M  (40% of 18.5M 16-49 - 33% in prior phases)
 Chemical 0.2M
 Communications and IT 0.3M
 Defense 0.06M
 Energy 0.1M
 Finance 0.6M
 Govt Ops, Community-Based 0.9M
 Water and Wastewater 0.02M
Everyone else:Â 2.6M - 5M