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Vaccine effectiveness in "real world"
M_T, what a difference a letter makes. Yes, asymtomatic, not symptomatic. I expect that vaccinated people have asymtomatic infections that don't get reported.  I need a personal editor before posting. 

I agree that the vax/unvax rates are consistent with the CDC study of health workers that were tested weekly with PCR tests:


In the UK they report average numbers that hide that mRNA is more effective than the vector vaccine (AZ ) by providing average figures. That makes sense in terms of public health in a world were supply of the mRNA vaccine is limited. One does not want people to wait to get the "better" vaccine. The reported rates of infection in Contra Costa County (CCC) may be lower than the actual infections because they are reporting infections by the system that CCC uses, not weekly PCR tests in a careful study. This is true for all people. The numbers quoted in the CDC study  do not apply for J&J, some indications are that it is not as "good." That doesn't mean that serious outcomes are more common, we just don't know. I note that a fraction of the folks in the CCC numbers learned of their infection after they were admitted to the hospital for a different reason. Any mortality analysis for vaccinated folks is now complicated that these people were sick enough to be admitted. To me, it's an unresolved issue. How much "better" are the mRNA vaccines. What is "better" anyway. I don't care about PCR positivity, I care about damage to my body. Wait, I care about spreading the disease to others. Crazy rant her to acknowledge that trades in risk of side effects, effectiveness, risk of serious outcomes, risk of infection, and risk of spreading are so complex that I can't handle it rationally.

The CCC data was able to reach me on an emotional level better than the CDC study above. I knew the numbers, but it reminded me that people do get infected after vaccinations. I do not, however, know what level of paranoia to engage in with respect to my personal health. My family is vaccinated, so I do not risk them. My age and prior respiratory issues can't be used to compute a number due to unknowns. The low rates in the Bay Area do seem to indicate that exposure is less likely these days. 

I don't lay awake at nights thinking about this. I just try to behave reasonably and do the risky things that bring me the most benefit but not some other things. Do you folks feel you have a handle on these issues?

Messages In This Thread
Vaccine effectiveness in "real world" - by M_T - 03-31-2021, 01:26 AM
RE: Vaccine effectiveness in "real world" - by ChrisGreene - 07-03-2021, 04:37 PM

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