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Vaccine effectiveness in "real world"
I didn't pay to see more than the intro, where they set up the problem.

I believe there are two reasons for detecting the virus in athletes;
1) For the benefit of the person: Making sure he/she gets the appropriate medical attention.
2) For the prevention of spread of COVID: Avoid putting the case into situations where he may is responsible for others to get the disease.

I believe that "test positive" here really means they have the virus in their system which was detected by the test (and not that the test is picking up the vaccine or evidence of the body's ability to fight the virus).

There are at least two aspects of having the virus that are important:
1) The individual may develop a full-blown infection.
2) The individual may shed virus that can infect others.
3) The individual may develop side-effects of the disease, without developing a full-blown infection.

Regarding #1, Typically, the PCR test picks up the infection before symptoms appear. The patient IS infected, but it is uncertain whether he will develop COVID symptoms or not. The effectiveness of different vaccines is different. Furthermore, each vaccine does have different effectiveness against different variants. It has been awhile since I looked, but the mRNA vaccines were 90% effective against being tested positive for the virus (for healthcare workers, tested weekly), while the J&J vaccine was about 67% effective against developing COVID symptoms. There were reports that some other vaccines were about 50% effective. Roughly speaking, that means that 1 out of 10 with mRNA vaccines, 1 out of 3 with J&J vaccines, and 1 out of 2 with the least-effective vaccines will get COVID versus unvaccinated people in roughly the same situation. I presume, but do not know, that vaccinated individuals that develop COVID symptoms will shed virus that can infect others. It seems to have been shown that vaccinated people that develop COVID have fewer bad outcomes. What I'm not sure about is whether (or how much) that reduction in bad outcomes is simply because of the reduced number of people that develop COVID. That is, if 10% of the 70-74yo males (with no vaccine) with a certain set of comorbidities die if they get COVID, do 10% of the 70-74yo men (with vaccine) with the same set of comorbidities die if they get COVID.

Regarding #2, I have seen little research for detecting shed virus by individuals before they have symptoms. A difficulty is that a person may shed virus under some circumstances (playing basketball vigorously) and not under others (reading a book in bed). I believe that the general belief is that asymptomatic patients shed less virus and for a shorter time than symptomatic patients.

Regarding #3, I have no idea whether this happens. I think I remember seeing some reports of getting later side-effects even though a case was asymptomatic, but I can't quote it currently.

Messages In This Thread
Vaccine effectiveness in "real world" - by M_T - 03-31-2021, 01:26 AM
RE: Vaccine effectiveness in "real world" - by M_T - 06-26-2021, 11:43 PM

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