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Vaccine effectiveness in "real world"
#5
The study is available now.

They tested subjects weekly (PCR). This is the first I've seen of a real measure of asymptomatic incidence.
Quote:Nonetheless, the majority (87.3%) of PCR-confirmed infections were associated with symptoms consistent with COVID-19–associated illness. The remaining PCR-confirmed infections were associated with other symptoms not part of the COVID-19–associated illness definition (e.g., headache, fatigue, and rhinorrhea) (2.0%) or no symptoms (10.7%). Only 22.9% of PCR-confirmed infections were medically attended, including two hospitalizations; no deaths occurred.

So, about 11% of the infections we asymptomatic; 13% had no typical COVID symptoms (including asymptomatic).
If you counted only cases with COVID symptoms, there were another 14.5% that you missed.

For various features (ethnicity, job, location, ...), the study gives the total number of people, how many were vaccinated or not, and how many got COVID. For each feature, they don't give how many unvaccinated got COVID.

The differences between subgroups could be due to differences in where they worked, what their job was, etc.
But I wanted to see if anything jumped out.

If U is the number of vaccinated in a group and V is the number vaccinated, if there were 90% effectiveness, the COVID cases C for U+V should be about the same as U+0.1V unvaccinated people (I'll call that EU).
So I computed the rate of cases per equivalent unvaccinated (C/EU).

Gender:
Females, U = 529; V = 1924, C = 109. EU = 721.4 C/EU = 15.11%
Males, U=460; V=1037; C=96; EU=563.7 C/EU = 17.03%

Race:
White: EU = 1073..4 C/EU= 16.59%
Other: EU =211.7 C/EU = 12.75%

Ethnicity:
Hispanic/Latino: EU=279.8 C/EU = 20.37%
Other: EU = 1005.3 C/EU = 14.72%

Age:
18-49: EU=945.4 C/EU = 15.44%
50+: EU= 339.7 C/EU = 17.37%

Occupation:
Primary HCP: EU = 142 C/EU = 11.27%
Other allied HCP: EU = 351.3 C/EU = 19.07%
First Responder: EU = 362.4 C/EU = 20.70%
Other: EU = 429.4 C/EU = 10.95%
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Messages In This Thread
Vaccine effectiveness in "real world" - by M_T - 03-31-2021, 01:26 AM
RE: Vaccine effectiveness in "real world" - by M_T - 04-06-2021, 07:34 PM

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