03-19-2021, 12:37 PM
I think it is odd that they compared 85+ rather than 75+ or 65+. If one saw healthcare workers drop first, followed by 75+ two weeks later and 65+ about 2 weeks after that, then it would be more compelling.
In the first graph, you could say there is some temporal shift that reflects the 85+ getting sick later. A reasonable explanation is that most of the 85+ have limited contacts. What we're seeing is that those contacts (nursing center staff, for instance) get sick according to the general population (red line) and then it takes another week or so for the 85+ to get sick.
Indeed, the fall-off in the 2nd graph could have been simply due to the decrease in the contacts (healthcare workers) getting sick versus the general public, so the 85+ were less exposed than the general public.
In the first graph, you could say there is some temporal shift that reflects the 85+ getting sick later. A reasonable explanation is that most of the 85+ have limited contacts. What we're seeing is that those contacts (nursing center staff, for instance) get sick according to the general population (red line) and then it takes another week or so for the 85+ to get sick.
Indeed, the fall-off in the 2nd graph could have been simply due to the decrease in the contacts (healthcare workers) getting sick versus the general public, so the 85+ were less exposed than the general public.