01-30-2021, 06:14 AM
I know you know this, but your analysis was on giving a population either one or the other vaccine. It illustrates the magnitude of the difference in effectiveness. We are in a different situation.
Also, there's a lot missing information in the demographics. For instance, people without co-morbidities between 18 and 40 could do much better than higher risk populations. That information probably takes longer to accumulate because the sample size gets smaller as you dice up the groups. Some official in the EU said they wouldn't recommend the Astra-Zenica vaccine for the elderly. That statement was inappropriate because the official is not authorized. However, it seems natural to maximize the probability of good outcomes by giving those most at risk the more effective medicine.
However, given the choice of the J & J vaccine now or the Pfizer vaccine some indeterminate time in the future, I'd take it.
Also, there's a lot missing information in the demographics. For instance, people without co-morbidities between 18 and 40 could do much better than higher risk populations. That information probably takes longer to accumulate because the sample size gets smaller as you dice up the groups. Some official in the EU said they wouldn't recommend the Astra-Zenica vaccine for the elderly. That statement was inappropriate because the official is not authorized. However, it seems natural to maximize the probability of good outcomes by giving those most at risk the more effective medicine.
However, given the choice of the J & J vaccine now or the Pfizer vaccine some indeterminate time in the future, I'd take it.