01-15-2021, 07:25 AM
(01-15-2021, 05:16 AM)M_T Wrote: If Sacramento is out of the regional stay-at-home order, why isn't SoCal? Â What if I told you that California projections are that SoCal will have at least 14% ICU availability tomorrow (assuming 0% availability today)...Just in time for youth sports to start up!
Yep, here is the state's graph of the actual & projected number of ICU patients (middle curve).  In the details, there are 3568 actual patients on Jan 13.  The prediction for Jan 14 is 3078 ICU patients.  That's a decrease of 490 beds or about 14% overnight.
By 4 weeks out, the ridiculous drop overnight continues to be a drop of 605, or 17%. Â Â
If the number of ICU beds drops 20% in the numbers of Jan 14, I'll eat my hat. Â I'd more likely believe that the governor will announce that SoCal is out of the regional stay-at-home based on entirely unbelievable projections.
Where does their estimate come from? Â Here is L.A. County by itself. Â As you can tell the ensemble projection is closely tracking the UCLA projection that seems responsible for this crazy discontinuity.
Look at how wildly different are the suite of projections. Â The LEMMA projections seem most reasonable among these for the data, but that's not what the state seems to be using.