Share on Facebook Share on Twitter

Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Who's birthday is it now? Sacramento out of Regional Stay at Home
#4
(01-15-2021, 05:16 AM)M_T Wrote: If Sacramento is out of the regional stay-at-home order, why isn't SoCal?  What if I told you that California projections are that SoCal will have at least 14% ICU availability tomorrow (assuming 0% availability today)...

Yep, here is the state's graph of the actual & projected number of ICU patients (middle curve).  In the details, there are 3568 actual patients on Jan 13.  The prediction for Jan 14 is 3078 ICU patients.  That's a decrease of 490 beds or about 14% overnight.

By 4 weeks out, the ridiculous drop overnight continues to be a drop of 605, or 17%.    

If the number of ICU beds drops 20% in the numbers of Jan 14, I'll eat my hat.  I'd more likely believe that the governor will announce that SoCal is out of the regional stay-at-home based on entirely unbelievable projections.


[Image: So-Cal-Covid-Proj20210114.png]

Where does their estimate come from?  Here is L.A. County by itself.  As you can tell the ensemble projection is closely tracking the UCLA projection that seems responsible for this crazy discontinuity.

Look at how wildly different are the suite of projections.   The LEMMA projections seem most reasonable among these for the data, but that's not what the state seems to be using.

[Image: LACo-Covid-Proj20210114.png]
Just in time for youth sports to start up!
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Who's birthday is it now? Sacramento out of Regional Stay at Home - by cardcrimson - 01-15-2021, 07:25 AM

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)