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CDC vaccine recommendations & approx. schedule
The CDC ACIP COVID-19 Vaccines Work Group recommendations were echoed in the final CDC recommendations for phases 1A, 1B, 1C.  In their recommendations, the ACIP Work Group estimated the number of people in each group as

  1A      24        24
  1B      49        73
  1C     149       202

That leaves roughly 50M (16+yo) people in phase 2
and about 80M under 16 in no phase at this time.

I expect group 1B to swell 10-20% as people claim to be frontline essential workers.  ("I see hot dogs at baseball games.")

As of mid-December, Operation Warp Speed estimated the timeline of FIRST doses to be distributed was
December: 20M  (total 20M first doses)
January: 30M[b]  (total 50M first doses)[/b]
February: 50M[b]  (total 100M first doses)[/b]
  Note this schedule has slipped.  Furthermore it requires some 80M vaccinations (50M first & 30M second) in February. That seems unachievable.
By the original schedule all of 24M first doses for 1A would be shipped about January 5.
Likewise, the 73M first doses for 1A+1B will be shipped by about February 15

The US then bought additional doses.  From Pfizer, 70M doses are to be delivered by the end of June, with 30M more by end of July.  From Moderna, 100M doses are to be delivered by the end of June.  My estimate of delivery schedule for the 100M FIRST doses is
March: 0?  (total 100M first doses)
April: 25M? (total 125M frist doses)
May: 30M? (total 155M first doses)
June: 30M?  (total 185M first doses)
July: 15M  (total 200M first doses)

Almost all the 202M first doses for phases 1A+1B+1C would be shipped by the end of July.  There aren't enough doses to cover the last 2M people.

Operation Warp Speed is running at least a week behind as of January 1.  A generously low estimate of how long it takes from delivery until use  of the vaccine is 2 weeks.  So,

Those in phase 1A should get their first dose by about January 27, with their second dose by February 17.
Those in phase 1B should get their first dose by about March 7, with their second dose about March 30.
Those in phase 1C will get their first shots between mid April and 3rd week of August.  Their 2nd dose will be 1st week in May to 2nd week of September.

130M have no purchased doses available.  

If, for instance, the new administration decides that K-12 COVID cases are real, and that brick&mortar education outweighs the lives of those in 1C, then most of 1C (65+, those with co-morbidities) will not get shots until next fall or winter, if more vaccinations are purchased.  This would either involve the new administration telling the CDC to change its recommendation, or the CDC deciding it had "new information" that changes the ethics.

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CDC vaccine recommendations & approx. schedule - by M_T - 01-07-2021, 06:42 AM

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