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The early days of SARS-COV-2
#1
I found this article in Science Magazine interesting (but rather technical).  As you may remember, the earliest known person infected with SARS-COV-2 first got symptoms on 1 Dec 2019.  As I recall, based on a 2-week period from infection to symptoms, the focus on finding how he got infected look at the range of 17 Nov to 1 Dec.  A prior infection was never found.  There was no evidence of this known case getting directly infected from either a person or animal.  As you may be aware, this first known case had no known direct connection to the market associated with many of the early cases.

This article looks at possible scenarios for how the virus jumped to humans and spread.  The virus genomes found in Hubei in late December/early January suggest they came from a common ancestor in November (more or less).  The article considers one or more earlier variants (perhaps less transmissable or less virulent) that went extinct before late December.

Looking at the epidemiology, the article considers where the virus originated.  Less transmissable variants would likely die out in a rural setting.  (That doesn't mean that the initial known case didn't get it in a rural area - I'm not aware of any such exposure.)

The article suggests that zoonotic pathogens may jump from species to species more frequently than we notice but frequently die out.  Denser urban areas permit the pathogen to establish itself with a higher populations. 

[The article quotes a March newspaper article saying the government traced the disease back to 17 November.  I believe that newspaper article misinterpreted what they saw.  I used Google Translate in February and March to look at the Chinese-language news & internet postings.  The government launched an intensive search looking for evidence of the disease in the period beginning 17 November.  No evidence was ever reported of any finding of any earlier case.  It was not stated,  but I took that date to be the 2-week incubation period before the first symptoms, as was generally recognized at the time.]

The article does not consider that an earlier variant might have had a longer incubation period.  (Not that I think that likely.)
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Messages In This Thread
The early days of SARS-COV-2 - by M_T - 03-23-2021, 09:32 AM
RE: The early days of SARS-COV-2 - by Hurlburt88 - 03-24-2021, 09:51 AM
RE: The early days of SARS-COV-2 - by Mick - 05-11-2021, 04:37 PM
RE: The early days of SARS-COV-2 - by Snorlax94 - 05-16-2021, 05:27 AM
RE: The early days of SARS-COV-2 - by M_T - 05-16-2021, 02:26 PM
RE: The early days of SARS-COV-2 - by Mick - 05-17-2021, 09:29 PM
RE: The early days of SARS-COV-2 - by Mick - 06-28-2021, 07:42 PM
RE: The early days of SARS-COV-2 - by M_T - 06-30-2021, 02:09 AM
RE: The early days of SARS-COV-2 - by Hurlburt88 - 06-30-2021, 01:29 PM
RE: The early days of SARS-COV-2 - by M_T - 07-01-2021, 11:01 AM
RE: The early days of SARS-COV-2 - by Hurlburt88 - 07-01-2021, 11:43 AM

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