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So, I've had the vaccination. Now what?
#1
My wife & I had a Moderna vaccination 3 weeks ago (with 2nd shot next week).  We're now past the point where the Moderna clinical study showed 95% protection against the (original) virus.  We're going to have to figure out new bounds on our activity.

At 95% protection, the vaccination should reduce our chances of getting the original virus by a factor of 20 over someone who hasn't had the vaccination.  That sounds good until you realize that it means (roughly) that instead of 28M confirmed cases, there would be only 2.4M cases.  Or, for each 120 vaccinated people, one of them would have gotten COVID (ignoring herd protection).

But, the big win for the vaccination is that the chances of getting a serious case is reduced even further, but the numbers were too small to get a non-zero estimate.  For the placebo group, there were 187 cases of COVID with 30 that were serious.  For the Moderna vaccine group, there were 12 cases of COVID with 0 serious.  One might expect around 2 serious cases out of the 12, but these are small numbers.

We've been more careful that most & I expect we will continue to be more careful.  Obviously, we'll continue to wear masks, etc.  We had a pizza delivered yesterday -- the first food we've had in a year that we didn't prepare.   My work has been remote, but now I can entertain going back to the office to work.

We do plan to drive to our grandkids in person in a few weeks for the first time in a year. (FaceTime has been a blessing).

It is time to make up the postponed annual physical and visits to the dentist.

I admit thinking about flying to Austin & San Antonio to see family & to see the NCAA Women's basketball tourney in early April, but I decided that after a year of being very careful, it just wasn't worth the risk.

If the number of cases in the US falls to levels from last April, then the risk of exposure is pretty small.  But if the cases stay at their current levels (about at the July peak), there's still a lot of exposure possibility.  (The current 70K new confirmed cases a day means about 0.2% of all people are in a 10 day window of having confirmed COVID. More will actually have COVID.)   Risks of catching COVID will depend upon how many people get vaccinations and how good those vaccinations are at preventing infections by the current strains of SARS-COV2 (vs just preventing serious cases of COVID).   

How do others view how they will manage their risks?
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So, I've had the vaccination. Now what? - by M_T - 03-01-2021, 04:39 AM

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