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+--- Thread: Rising tide? (/thread-114.html)
Rising tide? - M_T - 03-26-2021
As you've probably heard, France has installed new closures.
I was looking at an article on Germany backing out of increased closures for Easter weekend.
What caught my eye was
Quote:Restaurants, bars and many leisure facilities remain closed. A plan drawn up earlier this month to allow limited reopenings — of shops, for example — features an “emergency brake” under which regions are supposed to reimpose restrictions when the number of weekly infections exceeds 100 per 100,000 residents on three consecutive days.
Germany is currently recording 108 weekly new cases per 100,000 residents nationwide, with wide regional variations.
[These numbers are a couple of days old. I didn't finish the post.]
So, I checked the US. 118.6/100K DAILY over the last 7 days. It hasn't been below 100 since mid-October. The number of daily new cases has risen 5% from the recent bottom 5 days ago.
The 4 highest states & California: cases per 100K (7-day average)
NYC: 350 Up 50% since bottom 6 days ago
NJ: 330 Up 30% since bottom 16 days ago
MI: 250 Up 240% since bottom 32 days ago
NY-NYC: 220 Up 15% since bottom 10 days ago
CA: 50 Up 4% since bottom 4 days ago
RE: Rising tide? - cardcrimson - 03-26-2021
(03-26-2021, 06:39 PM)M_T Wrote: As you've probably heard, France has installed new closures.
I was looking at an article on Germany backing out of increased closures for Easter weekend.
What caught my eye was
Quote:Restaurants, bars and many leisure facilities remain closed. A plan drawn up earlier this month to allow limited reopenings — of shops, for example — features an “emergency brake” under which regions are supposed to reimpose restrictions when the number of weekly infections exceeds 100 per 100,000 residents on three consecutive days.
Germany is currently recording 108 weekly new cases per 100,000 residents nationwide, with wide regional variations.
[These numbers are a couple of days old. I didn't finish the post.]
So, I checked the US. 118.6/100K DAILY over the last 7 days. It hasn't been below 100 since mid-October. The number of daily new cases has risen 5% from the recent bottom 5 days ago.
The 4 highest states & California: cases per 100K (7-day average)
NYC: 350 Up 50% since bottom 6 days ago
NJ: 330 Up 30% since bottom 16 days ago
MI: 250 Up 240% since bottom 32 days ago
NY-NYC: 220 Up 15% since bottom 10 days ago
CA: 50 Up 4% since bottom 4 days ago
Really starting to get concerned that we are letting our collective guard down. Spent much of the day watching a swim meet virtually. What was unsettling was the number of kids completely ignoring the safeguards. When I dropped my daughter off, I noticed one pick up full of girls, eight or nine squeezed in the bed with nary a mask in sight. Lots of other high schoolers running around sans mask as well. Maybe I'm just an old fuddy duddy, but the kids are finally competing, let's not screw it up now. . ..
RE: Rising tide? - Hurlburt88 - 03-27-2021
I feel like our "guard" was never fully up, and yes it has dropped over the last 8 weeks. Many predicted a March/April surge so I don't find this surprising. Feels like a race between vaccination rates and the variants.
RE: Rising tide? - ChrisGreene - 03-27-2021
This is not to disagree with the prior statements, I do, in fact agree.
I have been looking at Germany's case rates due to having relatives there (as if that could help).
The "case incidence" in Germany is the number of total cases over the last 7 days per 100,000. Places like covidactnow.org quote the average daily cases per 100,000. So, when I thought Germany was in bad shape, it turns out that the case rate was 7x less than I thought. It turns out that news outlets don't always get things right on this scale, so beware!
EDIT: I really did a bad job here. Let me try to clarify. In Germany they quote the "incidence rate" as total cases over 7 days. Places like covidactnow.org quote the average of daily cases over 7 days. News outlets do not always account for this difference. If the SMC average of daily cases is 7, Germany would report something closer to 49. This had me confused for a long time because numbers just didn't add up. Any information regarding comparisons between different countries should be viewed with the understanding that we cheap out on paying journalists to really understand what they are reporting!
RE: Rising tide? - 82Card - 03-27-2021
(03-26-2021, 06:39 PM)M_T Wrote: As you've probably heard, France has installed new closures.
I was looking at an article on Germany backing out of increased closures for Easter weekend.
What caught my eye was
Quote:Restaurants, bars and many leisure facilities remain closed. A plan drawn up earlier this month to allow limited reopenings — of shops, for example — features an “emergency brake” under which regions are supposed to reimpose restrictions when the number of weekly infections exceeds 100 per 100,000 residents on three consecutive days.
Germany is currently recording 108 weekly new cases per 100,000 residents nationwide, with wide regional variations.
[These numbers are a couple of days old. I didn't finish the post.]
So, I checked the US. 118.6/100K DAILY over the last 7 days. It hasn't been below 100 since mid-October. The number of daily new cases has risen 5% from the recent bottom 5 days ago.
The 4 highest states & California: cases per 100K (7-day average)
NYC: 350 Up 50% since bottom 6 days ago
NJ: 330 Up 30% since bottom 16 days ago
MI: 250 Up 240% since bottom 32 days ago
NY-NYC: 220 Up 15% since bottom 10 days ago
CA: 50 Up 4% since bottom 4 days ago
I believe these numbers are 7 day totals, not the average of daily new cases over 7 days. The US has not exceeded 100/100K in a single day, although it came close on January 8. But the main point is correct. The numbers are high and going in the wrong direction. Especially in Michigan, NJ and NYC.
RE: Rising tide? - M_T - 03-28-2021
Lots of confusion possible, and I was confused.
At https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases
If you click on Daily Trends, the site explains "Blue bars show daily cases. The red line is the sum of cases over the last 7 days, divided by 7. Averages are used to reduce reporting differences." Currently the "7-day moving average" is 60,425 daily new cases. (At roughly 300M people, that's 60,425/300,000,000 or about 20/100,000 per day)
If you click on Total and Rate and 7-day rate, the site explains "Blue bars show daily cases. The red line represents cases in the last 7 days per 100,000, allowing for comparisons between areas with different population sizes." Currently 127.41 per week per 100K)
Currently, California's 7-day rate is 43.7 while NYC is 425. (NYC previous peaks were 455 on Apr 12 and 520 on Jan 12).
In NYC, 26.3% have at least one dose, and 14.5% have completed their vaccine series.
RE: Rising tide? - cardcrimson - 03-28-2021
Wow. Things are bad in Jersey and NYC, with the latter having it's worst day ever on March 22, 2021. So far, things are stabilizing here, though I'm concerned with some things I seeing. I'm guessing the outbreaks are amongst the younger population, but that's just a guess.
RE: Rising tide? - 82Card - 03-28-2021
As far as I can tell, the high numbers in NYC are being driven by a NY variant. Most of the states along the Atlantic coast from about the Carolinas to southern New England have been rising. I haven't seen anything looking at the variants that dominate in this area. The Michigan increase appears to be related to the British variant. I assume that states continuing to open thins up in the face of these increases is also making a major contribution. Although both the British and NY variants have been found in California, California so far appears to be dominated by it's own variant.
Although California hasn't been increasing much yet, it hasn't really gone down either in the last week. I'm just hoping the rise in California will be delayed enough for vaccinations to blunt it. So far, about 25% of Californians over 16 are fully vaccinated and a much higher percentage has had at least one shot in the Bay Area. If you scroll down in the linked article, they have a map with data for each county in CA.