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New strains
Pretty good article from Vox discussing the new variants emerging throughout the world.
Wore the N95 to the grocery store tonight. Big sale on pineapple!
And now, LA has its own variant, CAL.20c, accounting for 24% of SoCal virus.
Fauci with some concern that some variants may be resistant to the vaccines to a degree.

My sense is that the current vaccines which put out the full spike protein will still be effective against these variants at preventing severe disease but perhaps not as good at preventing mild illness or asymptomatic transmission. The preprints with the South African variant escaping convalescent plasma are concerning but the response to spike protein from the two shot booster regimen will be putting out much higher antibody levels than seen in that convalescent plasma. Also real life clinical data will be more relevant, though longer in coming.

The mAbs may be more susceptible to escape from the variants however. The polyclonal immune response to vaccine much more robust in combating escape. At least they helped our former POTUS.

Early on UW was on top of genomes around the world. California seemed really poor at getting the genome data, at least getting it into the databases. I kinda had the idea that the different genomes weren't likely to be too important.

It makes sense that more infectious variants develop & spread faster, or more effectively (slower symptoms would make it more effective). It makes less sense that more deadly versions are more infectious.

I was a little surprised that the article didn't mention the L.A. variant.

If a vaccine doesn't stop the asymptomatic illness, it would seem like it might backfire. If you had 20 or 40% of the worlds population passing around the asymptomatic illness, it would seem like it would spin out variants frequently. Then if any of them proved deadly, everyone has a problem.
In New Zealand, South Africa strain found in a woman who returned from overseas.
She has 15 close contacts. 

This may shed additional light on how aggressive this strain is.   If New Zealand can't contain it,  we're in trouble.
The CDC has a page on some of the variants.

Has anyone seen whether there have been reinfections from the new variants for those who had COVID before?
This article references a Dutch site that has identified 9000 possible reinfections. It appears that recently some Brazilian researchers are tracking reinfections (I can't read the article).
This Jan. 19th article indicates some 4,000 possible reinfections in South Africa.

Here is the Moderna press release on its neutralizing titers against the UK and S.Africa strains. Moderna is studying vaccine boosters for the South African variant.

Here is a January 27 BioRXIV report on the neutralizing titers for Pfizer against viruses created with the key mutations of the UK and South African viruses. Results were 0.8 to 1.4 compared to the virus without the mutations.
Comments about a Jan. 20 BioRXIV report on the Pfizer vaccine vs the UK variant.
One person wrote "The E484K mutation is an escape mutant and this is present in the South African variant (B1.351) and both Brazilian variants P1 and P2)"

As I read the Jan 27 report, the Pfizer vaccine appears to be pretty much as effective against the South African variant.
(01-20-2021, 07:34 AM)M_T Wrote: And now, LA has its own variant, CAL.20c, accounting for 24% of SoCal virus.
There’s more information on this variant, now called B.1.427/B.1.429.
(Putting my reply onto a thread on new strains/variants.)

If you want info on variants, start with the CDC page on Data & Surveillance. Do remember that the info on variants is from sampling (I don't know that it is random sampling), so the raw numbers are very much less than US cases.

There's a map with where & how many cases of the foreign "variants of concern" in the US.

The catalog of variants of interest and variants of concern lists these variants of concern (where 1st found) (Current US %).

Percentages averaged across the US are in the Genomic Surveillance page.
[Image: variants-circulation-us-figure-032421.png]

B.1.1.7 (UK) .................. 9.5% (doubled in 2 weeks, 2 weeks ago)
P.1 (Brazilian, also Japan) 0.1%
B.1.351 (South African) 0.4%
B.1.427 (California) 3.8%
B.1.429 (California) 9.1% (grew Jan. to mid Feb)

and then variants of interest:
B.1.526 (New York) 3.4%
B.1.525 (New York) 0.2%
P.2 (Brazil) 0.9%

Other variants:
B.1.2 ....... 39.7%
B.1 ........... 8.1%
B.1.1.222 .. 4.2%
B.1.243 ..... 2.7%
B.1.234 ..... 1.7%
B.1.311 ...... 0.9%
Other ...... 15.4%

The CDC map does not show the California or NY variants.

In the map, you can see that NY state has had 136 B.1.1.7 detections and one B.1.351.
Florida has detected many more variant cases: 2,200+ B.1.1.7, 42 P.1, and 14 B.1.351 cases.
California has detected 563 B.1.1.7, 7 P.1, 6 B.1.351.

From the CDC map on vaccinations, you can click on any state to get to that state's vaccination info. On the CDC map, I believe the most relevant for herd immunity, click on People, At Least One Dose, % of the population, Total population.

(03-28-2021, 07:26 PM)82Card Wrote: As far as I can tell, the high numbers in NYC are being driven by a NY variant. Most of the states along the Atlantic coast from about the Carolinas to southern New England have been rising. I haven't seen anything looking at the variants that dominate in this area. The Michigan increase appears to be related to the British variant. I assume that states continuing to open thins up in the face of these increases is also making a major contribution. Although both the British and NY variants have been found in California, California so far appears to be dominated by it's own variant.

Although California hasn't been increasing much yet, it hasn't really gone down either in the last week. I'm just hoping the rise in California will be delayed enough for vaccinations to blunt it. So far, about 25% of Californians over 16 are fully vaccinated and a much higher percentage has had at least one shot in the Bay Area. If you scroll down in the linked article, they have a map with data for each county in CA.

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