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Latest Threads
New variant: omicron
Forum: COVID-19
Last Post: M_T
Yesterday, 01:33 PM
» Replies: 8
» Views: 89
It ain't over
Forum: COVID-19
Last Post: M_T
Yesterday, 12:17 PM
» Replies: 1
» Views: 28
Comparison of Vaccines
Forum: Vaccine
Last Post: M_T
11-30-2021, 02:48 AM
» Replies: 5
» Views: 136
Vaccine effectiveness in ...
Forum: Vaccine
Last Post: Hurlburt88
11-27-2021, 07:03 AM
» Replies: 18
» Views: 499
Looking ahead on vaccines
Forum: Vaccine
Last Post: Hurlburt88
11-15-2021, 09:19 AM
» Replies: 17
» Views: 1,412
Detox after vaccination
Forum: Humor
Last Post: M_T
11-13-2021, 10:34 AM
» Replies: 1
» Views: 22
Natural (infection) vs va...
Forum: Vaccine
Last Post: M_T
11-12-2021, 09:37 PM
» Replies: 2
» Views: 43
Cal Football team: 44(and...
Forum: COVID-19
Last Post: M_T
11-12-2021, 05:28 PM
» Replies: 2
» Views: 76
Novavax
Forum: Vaccine
Last Post: Hurlburt88
11-09-2021, 06:30 AM
» Replies: 2
» Views: 43
Pfizer Vaccine for 5-11yo
Forum: Clinical trial data (read-only)
Last Post: M_T
11-01-2021, 03:18 PM
» Replies: 0
» Views: 12

 
  It ain't over
Posted by: M_T - 11-28-2021, 04:17 AM - Forum: COVID-19 - Replies (1)

We grow tired of a constant fight.  However,  ....

As of November 2021, Europe's number one cause of death is COVID.

Here are the current world and US levels of COVID weekly cases and deaths. 
I wouldn't count on the cases being actual, but the deaths are probably closer.
The fact that the number of cases in the US is on the rise means that deaths will
soon be on the rise.  But for now, there are just over 50,000 COVID deaths a week in the
world, with approximately 8,000 COVID deaths a week in the US (out of a normal 60K deaths).

[Image: Covid20211128.png]
(Sorry, the right-hand side of the thumbnail is truncated.  Click on it to see the full image.)

Approximately the middle of each graph is where vaccines first came available.

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  New variant: omicron
Posted by: Hurlburt88 - 11-26-2021, 11:52 AM - Forum: COVID-19 - Replies (8)

I think the latest variant is referred to by "omicron" although yesterday morning one article called it "nu".   Potentially more transmissible and with 50 mutations some concern about evading established immunity--although one article this morning implied that the vast majority of hospitalized cases in South Africa are unvaccinated persons.   To me it will be interesting to see if it fizzles or if it truly takes hold and challenges delta's current dominance.   I am also interested if it gives rise to boosters tweaked to this variant.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/26/pfizer-b...st-it.html

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  Detox after vaccination
Posted by: Hurlburt88 - 11-13-2021, 09:24 AM - Forum: Humor - Replies (1)

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/c...x-rcna4859

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  Natural (infection) vs vaccine immunity in young children
Posted by: NoGoldenCalves - 11-12-2021, 07:08 AM - Forum: Vaccine - Replies (2)

Hi all, I was fixated to the Covid discussion on TheCardBoard and when it moved over here I failed to migrate as I was dealing with Covid-19 issues in my work. I run a small k-12 school like community in Texas. I feel that as of July I was pretty on top of all the latest developments and that we had a superior plan for our education community coming into the year.

Recently, the parent of one of our young people has been challenging our approach to vaccines for the under 12 crowd. We have a risk basked process for bringing folks indoors and at the current rate of spread only vaccinated kids can come indoors. I was wondering if anyone can point me to discussions on the debate over vaccines for children under the age of 12. Else, if anyone has time, I would love to hear what you think (with resources or studies if immediately on hand) to some of the points he has raised in the email he just sent me pasted below:


Quote:I don’t mean to speak for my doctor; this is only my takeaway. 


He sees no reason to vaccinate [name] at this time.  He is supportive of vaccination in those without previous infection. 

He claimed there are over 90 studies contradicting the CDCs recent statement that vaccination is superior to prior infection and therefore he is entirely comfortable with [name's] current level of immunity.  

He said that, in adults, he sees a medical advantage to one dose of the vaccine in the previously infected. 

According to his research the one dose offers added immunity, and the second dose seems to not be able to have a significant impact. 

He seems to think that covid vaccination will remain totally unnecessary for previously infected 5-11 year olds.  

He feels that for those with obvious strong risk factors and those that had a severe initial infection, a case by case determination is warranted.  

He did write us a letter that says something like: vaccination is not medically indicated at this time and [name] has immunity making him clear for school, travel, etc…

For the moment we are following his lead on this.  

To further clarify my own assessment of the current data:

My problem with many publicized studies is they are using correlation as proof of causation. This approach dismisses many variables, including lifestyle. 

I wonder if the previously infected were less protected from Covid due to the lack of vaccine, or were they a section of society that was less careful?

In the Israel study, was there cultural shame on the previously infected? Were they more careful after their infection?  

The studies are likely not objectively able to fully address such questions.

In The States I suspect those who were both previously infected and unvaccinated were exceptionally careless about their exposure.  

I believe that this type of data limitation could explain the range of findings.  Infinite variables could be at play when trying to use correlation to prove causation.  

Correlation studies obviously have a place in science; overwhelming consistency is not to be discarded, but in this situation I think it is also necessary to look at studies that investigate the nuts and bolts of the typical immune response. 

I have not kept a reference list, but over the recent weeks I have read quite a few articles and studies that came across as conclusive about observable indicators of a robust, effective, and long term immune response in even very mild cases of previously infected. (The cdc study I keep referring to was peculiar in limiting their correlation statistics to only the hospitalized. Seems counting how many people stayed out of the hospital would also be a relevant metric)

My personal assessment so far, based on my inquiry, is that natural infection is slightly superior to vaccination.



Our approach has not been focused on risk to the young people alone, although we don't want kids getting infected at all given unknown longer term complications to the disease, but more so the risk of spread within our community and then outward into the broader local communities. So even if everything he says in the email is directionally correct, we are still thinking about people beyond the child in question. Nonetheless, any suggestions on where to look for information that would be more efficient than me doing a bunch of random searches would be super helpful. 

Apologies for rambling, and thank you.

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  Cal Football team: 44(and counting?) positives
Posted by: M_T - 11-11-2021, 02:42 AM - Forum: COVID-19 - Replies (2)

The UC Berkeley football team has had 44 people (players and staff) test positive for COVID by Tuesday, Nov. 9.  24 players (and 5 coaches) were unable to attend Saturday's (Nov 6) game against Arizona because of the COVID protocol.   Cal's Nov. 4 statement is that 99% of the players were vaccinated, with 2 people of the 117 in the program (players and staff) not being vaccinated.  (That suggests that 1 player and 1 staff were not vaccinated.  The 2 unvaccinated people were reported to have COVID.)

That's (at least) 38% of the people in the program being tested positive for Covid within the week.  37% of those with vaccines tested positive   Potentially some of the positives have recently had Covid and are now clear, but had not been tested since they had it.

As best I can make out from somewhat unclear reporting, some players and coaches were symptomatic last week.  Because of this, they got tested.  At least some of those were positive.   Then, I think, the rest of the team was tested.  A total of 29 had positive tests as of Saturday.  Further testing (twice weekly) was required as a result of that outbreak, leading to a group of 15 new cases announced Tuesday.

It will be informative to know if any of the 15 new cases played on Saturday and whether any of the Arizona players get tested and whether they develop Covid (symptomatic or not).

Cal's policy is that unvaccinated students & staff have to be tested weekly.  Presumably the two unvaccinated people were tested a week earlier.  (Depending on the test, the false negative rate may be pretty high. Potentially, they got a negative result despite having Covid.)   Therefore  the timing makes it unlikely that the first case of this outbreak was among the unvaccinated.  More likely is that some vaccinated (and, therefore, untested) coach or player was sick a week before and spread it to the others.

Vaccinated people at Cal have to upload a record of the vaccination.  Unvaccinated people have to wear masks in "all public settings".  I would have expected that to include football training & games.

The City of Berkeley Health Officer order (8/2/21) indicates that unless 100% are vaccinated, all must wear masks indoors in gyms and such. (There is an exception for professional sports, but not school sports.)

I am quite surprised and concerned that (at least) 37% of the vaccinated got COVID, even if potentially they were all vaccinated with the J&J vaccine.  

I've Googled but have been unable to find any reference identifying when the players & staff got vaccines and which vaccines they were.  Vaccinations were opened up to 16+ on April 15, a bit under 7 months before the outbreak. 

Perhaps the Cal football team's outbreak contributed to Santa Clara County announcing on Wednesday that all who had the mRNA shots 6 months earlier, or the J&J shot 2 months earlier, could get a booster in the county.

I suppose it is possible that some of these people uploaded fake vaccination cards to the school.  I hope not, as that would probably be considered fraud.  But college students sometimes do stupid things.

I'm sorta surprised this is the first really big outbreak among football teams that I've heard of.  Are we going to see this in basketball?  What were the causes contributing to it at Cal?   Which vaccine, lack of masks & spacing, maybe vocalizing in a group, ... ?   The Health Officer indicated failure to get tested (or even to stay home) when sick.  Is it an atmosphere of disregard for the disease?

I wonder if this major outbreak on the football team will lead to a significant outbreak among other students, and then with Thanksgiving approaching, whether it will spread to family members.  (It probably won't be spread to family members of the football team, as those athletes are going to be well tested.)

I wonder if this will lead to (renewed) mandated regular testing of athletes in close-contact sports.


I expect many student-athletes around the country will be getting boosters in the next week or two.  I hope many adults do too.

Sports note: If Cal is found to be primarily at fault for being unable to play a contest, they will forfeit the contest.  This situation may contribute to how Cal football claims that they were following the rules.

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  Novavax
Posted by: Hurlburt88 - 11-02-2021, 05:55 AM - Forum: Vaccine - Replies (2)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/novavax-cov...1635784579

Just an FYI.   I don't think this fundamentally changes the vaccine landscape.

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  Pfizer Vaccine for 5-11yo
Posted by: M_T - 11-01-2021, 03:18 PM - Forum: Clinical trial data (read-only) - No Replies

FDA Advisory Committee Meeting Announcement

FDA Briefing Document

Pfizer Briefing Document

FDA Review of Effectiveness & Safety (Slides)

FDA Review of Benefits-Risks

Epidemiology in 5-11yo

Vaccine-Associated Myocarditis (12+yo)

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  J&J Booster
Posted by: M_T - 11-01-2021, 02:06 PM - Forum: Clinical trial data (read-only) - No Replies

[/url][url=https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-october-14-15-2021-meeting-announcement]FDA Advisory Committee Meeting Announcement 10/14-15/21

FDA Briefing Slides

FDA Briefing Document

J&J Briefing Document

J&J Addendum

(Note:  Post authorization review of the (original) vaccine has been added to the original vaccine post.)

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  Moderna Booster
Posted by: M_T - 11-01-2021, 02:05 PM - Forum: Clinical trial data (read-only) - No Replies

FDA Advisory Committee Meeting Announcement 10/14-15/21

FDA Briefing Document
FDA Review Slides

Moderna Briefing Slides
(includes update on efficacy of original vaccine doses)

Moderna Briefing Document

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  Pfizer Booster
Posted by: M_T - 11-01-2021, 02:04 PM - Forum: Clinical trial data (read-only) - No Replies

FDA Advisory Committee 9/17/22 Meeting Announcement

FDA Briefing document
FDA Review of Safety and Effectiveness (slides)

Pfizer document
Pfizer presentation (slides)

Israel information on booster protection

CDC update on epidemiology and vaccines

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