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Full Version: Austin, TX projections & stage 4
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A Univ. of Texas group published a projection of COVID in Austin, Texas.
They based it on  R = 1.4.  However, CovidActNow.com shows R to be 1.37 as of 7/14, and growing rapidly.

If nothing changes (R=1.4), the ICUs run out about Aug 21.
Their projection is that if Austin has low compliance with the rules, ICUs will run out in late September.
(For medium compliance, they didn't report a ICU-shortage before their horizon of the start of October.)

The region hit one of their thresholds (established in May) for Stage 4 on Monday, but they haven't yet enacted it. It is imminent.
(For not-fully vaccinated: no private gatherings indoor or outdoor; only essential dining(!?), shopping & travel (and then with masks))
 For fully vaccinated: masks required for private gatherings indoor or outdoor; and dining, shopping & travel).

Odd: rather than using the CDC high-risk factors for COVID, they used a 2010 risk assessment for the flu.   That's odd.  That choice greatly reduces the estimate of at-risk individuals (a factor of 2 or so), as I understand it.  They left out smoking (current & former).