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Financial Times dove into the case, hospitalization,  and death counts for the US with regards to Covid and are able to see a noticeable decline in elderly stats as compared to previous post wave declines.  The conclusion is that this is primarily caused by the vaccines. 

NYT reporting this morning on how effective the UK's approach has been, with highlights on decision to delay 2nd injection in favor of covering more people in a shorter amount of time.  Speed over perfection theory.   Nice thing is that US seems to be up at 2.5M shots per day administered, with further increases planned.   I personally wonder if in early april we will start to see marketing campaigns as supply outstrips demand.
I think it is odd that they compared 85+ rather than 75+ or 65+. If one saw healthcare workers drop first, followed by 75+ two weeks later and 65+ about 2 weeks after that, then it would be more compelling.

In the first graph, you could say there is some temporal shift that reflects the 85+ getting sick later. A reasonable explanation is that most of the 85+ have limited contacts. What we're seeing is that those contacts (nursing center staff, for instance) get sick according to the general population (red line) and then it takes another week or so for the 85+ to get sick.

Indeed, the fall-off in the 2nd graph could have been simply due to the decrease in the contacts (healthcare workers) getting sick versus the general public, so the 85+ were less exposed than the general public.
(03-19-2021, 04:57 AM)Hurlburt88 Wrote: [ -> ]NYT reporting this morning on how effective the UK's approach has been, with highlights on decision to delay 2nd injection in favor of covering more people in a shorter amount of time.  Speed over perfection theory.   Nice thing is that US seems to be up at 2.5M shots per day administered, with further increases planned.   I personally wonder if in early april we will start to see marketing campaigns as supply outstrips demand.

2.5M/day = 75M single doses in a month.  As of today, we're at 118M (77M 1st, 41M 2nd) administered.  As I recall, there are about 255M eligible for the vaccine (16+) or 510M doses.  We're short of shots in arms by 390M doses (ignoring J&J single doses).  That's roughly 5 months at the current rate.

The US has bought more vaccine than needed for initial (2-dose) vaccination of the US population and we're awaiting manufacturing & delivery.  I see the current administration has converted health dollars into immigration policy dollars by "loaning" AZ vaccines (already stockpiled but not approved) to Mexico, reportedly to get Mexico to align its policies more in line with what this administration wants.   The administration could also have been offered the doses to France where their rate of new cases appears to be much higher than Mexico.

Fauci has foreseen the marketing and so advises "Take whatever is available to you first."  But I do know I have opinions as to which I'd prefer my daughter to get when her turn comes up.  If there are 3 or 4 options out there, she may prefer one and be able to get in that line.


By the way, just using SCC numbers, the weekly new cases are down by a factor of almost 10x from the peak.  The two mRNA vaccines reduce your chance of getting the disease by a factor of 20x.  So, just from the reduction of the disease in the commonity (which started dropping before the vaccines had any effect), the general public is less likely o get infected to an extent better than the J&J vaccine.
(03-19-2021, 12:37 PM)M_T Wrote: [ -> ]Indeed, the fall-off in the 2nd graph could have been simply due to the decrease in the contacts (healthcare workers) getting sick versus the general public, so the 85+ were less exposed than the general public.
Would this support the vaccine effect argument since the Healthcare workers were among  the first to get vaccinated?
Here are some stats on hospitalizations in Michigan, where they are having an increase in cases & hospitalizations:


Quote:In the past three weeks, the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations has more than doubled, from about 824 on March 1 compared to 1,687 reported Tuesday, March 23. Currently, 356 coronavirus patients are in ICUs, a 58% increase compared to the 225 in ICUs on March 1.

The increases are being driven by younger adults: Since March 1, hospitalizations increased by 633% for adults ages 30-39 and by 800% for adults ages 40-49, the MHA says.

Meanwhile, hospitalizations for those age 80 and older are up 37%. About 44% of people in that age group are fully vaccinated and more than two-thirds have had at least one dose.